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Is Marathon (MPC) Poised for a Robust Q4 Earnings Show?
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Jan 30. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $2.36 per share on revenues of $33.7 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the independent oil refiner and marketer’s results in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MPC’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator beat the consensus mark on lower costs and expenses, which offset the effect of a drop in refining margin. MPC had reported adjusted earnings per share of $8.14, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.79. Revenues of $41.6 billion generated by the firm also came in above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18%.
MPC beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an earnings surprise of 11.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.3% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 64.5% deterioration year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 15.9% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Marathon Petroleum is expected to have reaped the reward of lower costs during the quarter. In the third quarter of 2023, the company’s total costs and expenses of $36.8 billion dropped 9.2% from $40.6 billion a year ago. This trend most likely continued in the October-December period of 2023.
On a further bullish note, the improvement in Marathon Petroleum’s Midstream segment results might have buoyed its to-be-reported bottom line. Thanks to higher gathering system throughputs, robust tariff rates and the stable, fee-based revenues from its wide range of midstream energy services, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this unit’s operating income is pegged at $1.2 billion, suggesting an increase of $103 million from the prior-year quarter’s profit. This is likely to have buoyed the fourth-quarter results of MPC.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MPC has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Marathon Petroleum is not the only energy company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other firms from the space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 30.
MPLX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. Valued at around $37.5 billion, MPLX has gained 7.9% in a year.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 2.
ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.6%, on average. Valued at around $383.7 billion, XOM has lost 13.5% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 9.
Plains All American Pipeline beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.3%, on average. Valued at around $11.2 billion, PAA has gained 25.3% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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Is Marathon (MPC) Poised for a Robust Q4 Earnings Show?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Jan 30. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $2.36 per share on revenues of $33.7 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the independent oil refiner and marketer’s results in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MPC’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator beat the consensus mark on lower costs and expenses, which offset the effect of a drop in refining margin. MPC had reported adjusted earnings per share of $8.14, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.79. Revenues of $41.6 billion generated by the firm also came in above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18%.
MPC beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an earnings surprise of 11.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 1.3% downward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 64.5% deterioration year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 15.9% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Marathon Petroleum is expected to have reaped the reward of lower costs during the quarter. In the third quarter of 2023, the company’s total costs and expenses of $36.8 billion dropped 9.2% from $40.6 billion a year ago. This trend most likely continued in the October-December period of 2023.
On a further bullish note, the improvement in Marathon Petroleum’s Midstream segment results might have buoyed its to-be-reported bottom line. Thanks to higher gathering system throughputs, robust tariff rates and the stable, fee-based revenues from its wide range of midstream energy services, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this unit’s operating income is pegged at $1.2 billion, suggesting an increase of $103 million from the prior-year quarter’s profit. This is likely to have buoyed the fourth-quarter results of MPC.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MPC has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Marathon Petroleum is not the only energy company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other firms from the space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 30.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
MPLX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. Valued at around $37.5 billion, MPLX has gained 7.9% in a year.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 2.
ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.6%, on average. Valued at around $383.7 billion, XOM has lost 13.5% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 9.
Plains All American Pipeline beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.3%, on average. Valued at around $11.2 billion, PAA has gained 25.3% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.